September was a record-breaking month for the Toronto real estate market. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported that sales and sale prices in the GTA were up considerably since last year. Sales were up 42.3% compared to September 2019. Sale prices have gone up considerably too. Here is the year-over-year price increase break-down for the GTA:
Given all the negative information that is swirling around about the housing market, especially about the condo market, this data is confusing. Rather than focussing on one month’s worth of data, we need to step back and review the year-to-date to get our bearings. Here’s what the data actually shows: while September was a great year for the market, our transactions are still slightly down from last year and our listings are slightly up from last year.
According to TRREB, the total number of transactions in Toronto from January 2019-September 2019 was 24,546, the total number of new listings in that period was 43,072. Conversely, The total number of transactions in Toronto from January 2020-September 2020 was 22,625 and the new listings were 45,782 (new listings is a metric that needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it includes re-listed properties as well as new ones.)
Looking at the whole picture of the market, rather than focussing on one month, gives a much stronger take on how the market is doing. Because prices are up in all housing types, we are still in a seller’s market. The market is still strong. However, it is misleading to think that the market itself is up by 42%. It is not. Rather, we are still playing catch-up from four months of lockdown and no market activity. Here’s the takeaway, our transactions are slightly down, listings are slightly up and prices are significantly up. The market is strong but not bonkers.
The Kim Kehoe Team